Strategic Thinker, part III
Posted by lex, on March 20, 2007
Continuing yesterday’s discussion (if anybody is still paying attention):
Per Barnett, Iran cannot be marginalized – developing China and India need their oil too much to allow the international community to attach real consequences to their nuclearization program. Not entirely sure I agree – after all the world oil market is a single, integrated market: The PRC doesn’t buy “Iranian” oil so much as it buys oil from a common pool to which Iran has contributed. Certainly an embargo on Iranian exports including oil would bid up the spot market cost, although I would argue that, with prices fluctuating between $57-$70 per barrel over the last year the market has already tested the boundaries of this type of supply disruption. Too, our friends in the House of Saud have a vested interest in stymieing the larger Persian bid towards regional dominance.